A banner of President Donald Trump hangs over Iranian People and their supporters as they march from the U.S. Capitol to the World Battle II Memorial throughout a rally Saturday, Might 16, 2026, in Washington.
Rod Lamkey/AP
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Rod Lamkey/AP
President Donald Trump has staked a lot of his political id on his prowess as a dealmaker who’s able to bending adversaries to his will.
However Iran, till now, has proved immune to that strategy. Since the US and Israel launched army strikes on Iran in late February,
a 38-day army marketing campaign has given method to a fragile ceasefire, a mutual blockade centered on the Strait of Hormuz, and a cycle of stalled negotiations punctuated by Trump’s repeated threats to renew large-scale assaults.For greater than six weeks now, the 2 nations have been locked in a standoff that has rattled world vitality markets, regional stability, and Trump’s home political standing.
It has left governments, militaries, companies and communities around the globe asking: ‘what is going to Trump do subsequent?’
On Monday, Trump introduced he had referred to as off a deliberate army strike on the request of Gulf Arab allies. He then mentioned that “severe negotiations are actually happening,” including that a number of regional companions — the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — had advised him they believed “a deal shall be made, which shall be very acceptable to the US of America.”
However whilst he introduced the pause, Trump advised his army commanders to stay on standby for “a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a second’s discover, within the occasion that a suitable Deal just isn’t reached.” That marked the most recent spin in what has grow to be a recurring cycle for Trump throughout this battle: a deadline, a risk, a pullback, one other risk.
Three of Trump’s core said struggle goals — Iran abandoning its nuclear program, halting ballistic missile improvement, and ending assist for Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — stay unmet.
Iran’s response to this newest pause from the White Home was hardly conciliatory.
“Our armed forces’ fingers are on the set off, whereas diplomacy can also be persevering with,” Mohsen Rezaei, a army adviser to Iran’s supreme chief, mentioned on state tv.
Iran’s leverage over the Strait
Central to the deadlock is the Strait of Hormuz, by means of which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and pure gasoline moved earlier than the battle started. Iran’s efficient closure of the waterway, even because the U.S. continues to implement its personal blockade on Iranian ports, has despatched vitality costs increased worldwide and created a direct downside for American customers.
An evaluation of common nationwide gasoline costs by AAA reveals they’ve elevated greater than 50% for the reason that begin of the battle. An AP-NORC ballot performed this previous week confirmed that solely a 3rd of People at present approve of Trump’s dealing with of the financial system.
Trump’s choice to make the most of most financial and army strain labored towards Venezuela and positioned extreme pressure on Cuba. However Iran presents a distinct problem due to its potential to threaten one of many world’s most important vitality chokepoints.
One other problem is that either side imagine that taking part in the ready sport will finally work of their favor. Vali Nasr, a scholar of Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins College’s Faculty of Superior Worldwide Research, advised NPR’s Morning Version that the present management in Tehran has drawn a pointy distinction between Trump’s army threats, which Iranian officers think about honest, and his invites to conduct diplomacy, which they don’t.
“Iran doesn’t take him critically when he says he desires to barter,” Nasr mentioned, including that Iranian officers have learn U.S. diplomatic alerts as a technique designed to purchase time and sow inner confusion moderately than attain a real settlement. On a number of events, the U.S. and Israel have launched assaults towards Iran amid negotiations.
No clear endgame
On the query of whether or not the battle might settle into a protracted frozen standoff, Nasr mentioned he was skeptical that the present deadlock will maintain.
“The Strait of Hormuz can’t stay closed indefinitely, and the U.S. can’t preserve this blockade indefinitely,” he mentioned, citing the toll on the broader world financial system in addition to the boundaries of America’s naval capabilities. “I do not suppose we’re speaking months — perhaps a month.”
Regardless of its battlefield losses, Iran has managed to maintain its governing operations largely intact and its grip on the Strait largely in place. However questions stay over Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions that the nation’s leaders have lengthy insisted are civilian in nature. Trump has at occasions threatened to destroy them. However the authorities in Tehran is insistent on its proper to develop peaceable nuclear vitality.
The White Home, for its half, maintains that its present posture has been profitable.
“President Trump holds all of the playing cards and properly retains all choices on the desk,” White Home spokesperson Olivia Wales repeatedly insisted to reporters this week.
