EXPERT OPINION — I’m intently watching the rising measurement and momentum of protesters throughout Iran’s cities, rural areas, and pious communities who’re bravely and vocally rejecting the Supreme Chief’s damaged insurance policies. They’ve shined a lightweight on Khamenei’s gross mismanagement of the financial system and the extreme multi-year drought; his fixed agitation and hostile relations with neighbors; Iran’s lack of status and affect with coreligionist communities in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria; his failures towards international assaults; and his misguided alliance with Russia towards Ukraine. Even regime loyalists have begun murmuring such complaints.
Regime instability indicators and warnings are blinking. I imagine Iran’s revolutionary facade is crumbling, however into an unsure future.
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As extra protesters demand a greater future, I’m waiting for proof of leniency from their fathers, brothers, uncles, and schoolmates who work within the IRGC, the police, and even within the Basij. If such cracks seem, new non-revolutionary leaders may emerge as shortly as al-Sharaa rose to energy in Syria.
Protesters, nevertheless, more than likely lack expertise working cities, provinces, and the federal authorities. New non-revolutionary leaders due to this fact in all probability would look to the U.S. for assurance and assist – and straight away.
If the protests produce a brand new Supreme Chief below a revolutionary Velāyat-e Faqih theocracy mannequin, nevertheless, the long run seems to be fairly darkish. Crackdowns would in all probability be fairly harsh and swift, the nuclear program would more than likely march on, and Tehran undoubtedly would preserve funneling cash and arms to trusted proxies that threaten the U.S. and Israel.
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I’ve been engaged on Iranian points since 1979 as an educational, diplomat, intelligence officer, and now as a professor of follow. Nothing, in my opinion, would stabilize the area between the Black Sea, Japanese Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf sooner than a peaceable, non-nuclear and rich Iran that acknowledges the state of Israel and distances itself from Russia.
Most pendulums finally swing, and I’m waiting for this one to swing in assist of the Iranian individuals lastly having an opportunity to rejoin a neighborhood of free nations that worth peace, prosperity, and democracy. If non-revolutionary leaders had been to emerge, the West may lastly and shortly work in direction of restoring a genuinely peaceable future that ends Tehran’s nuclear weapons program; breaks its lethal alliance with Russia; terminates its pricey assist to Hizballah, Hamas, and the Houthis; and welcomes Iran into the neighborhood of countries as a accountable, wealth-producing world vitality associate. Could the pendulum swing decisively in these instructions in 2026.
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