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Can an AI Pivot Save This Meme Inventory Darling?

by Vegas Valley News
November 11, 2025
in Business
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Can an AI Pivot Save This Meme Inventory Darling?
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Miniature wooden houses and red arrow up. The concept of increasing the cost of housing. High demand for real estate. The growth of rent and mortgage rates. Sale of apartments. Population grows
Andrii Yalanskyi / Shutterstock.com
  • Opendoor Applied sciences (OPEN) inventory surged 21% after JPMorgan initiated protection with an Chubby ranking and $8 worth goal.

  • JPMorgan expects Opendoor quarterly dwelling acquisitions to rise at the very least 35% in This autumn and tasks breakeven by late 2026.

  • Third-quarter income fell 33.5% year-over-year to $915M with gross margins shrinking to 7.2% from 11.5%.

  • Some traders get wealthy whereas others wrestle as a result of they by no means realized there are two fully completely different methods to constructing wealth. Don’t make the identical mistake, find out about each right here.

Opendoor Applied sciences (NASDAQ:OPEN) noticed its inventory tumble 17% final week after releasing third-quarter earnings that highlighted ongoing challenges in its iBuying enterprise. The corporate reported income of $915 million, beating estimates however down 33.5% year-over-year because it targeted on clearing legacy stock relatively than driving development.

Adjusted losses got here in at $0.12 per share, lacking the $0.07 consensus, whereas web losses widened to $90 million from $78 million a yr in the past. Gross margins shrank to 7.2% from 11.5%, reflecting strain from older, lower-quality properties. The fourth-quarter outlook added to the ache, with income anticipated to drop about 35% sequentially attributable to skinny stock after a sluggish shopping for interval. Administration pushed profitability targets to breakeven by the top of 2026, signaling an extended highway to restoration amid a technique pivot to AI and software program.

These misses and the delayed turnaround timeline crushed investor hopes that the inventory’s earlier meme-driven runup — from summer season lows close to $0.50 to a mid-September excessive of $10.87 per share may maintain. Yesterday, although, the inventory surged greater than 21% after an analyst weighed in with a bullish word concerning the firm. Does this imply the meme inventory rally is again on?

JPMorgan analyst Dae Lee kicked off protection of Opendoor with an Chubby ranking and an $8 worth goal for December 2026, sparking the sharp rebound in shares. Lee highlighted a “main transformation underway” beneath new CEO Kaz Nejatian, who’s refounding the agency as a software program and AI firm. This shift strikes away from the prior administration’s risk-averse stance, focusing as an alternative on quantity development by way of tighter pricing spreads and quicker dwelling turns.

The analyst pointed to Opendoor’s use of AI for pricing accuracy, workflow automation, and add-on providers like mortgages and warranties to spice up per-transaction margins. He expects quarterly dwelling acquisitions to rise at the very least 35% sequentially within the fourth quarter, rebuilding stock and establishing for stronger outcomes.

Lee tasks contribution margins enhancing to five% to 7% with faster resales, paving the way in which for adjusted web revenue breakeven by late 2026 and round $8 billion in 2027 income. This optimism stems from the U.S. actual property market’s potential for tech disruption, the place Opendoor’s data-driven mannequin may seize extra share.

This bullish view contrasts with Opendoor’s latest earnings, which confirmed shrinking income, widening losses, and compressed margins from legacy stock. The third-quarter contribution margin fell to 2.2%, and the fourth-quarter information alerts even decrease near-term profitability as outdated properties proceed to pull. Lee’s word acknowledges this volatility as a short-term hurdle from clearing previous points, framing it as mandatory for the pivot’s success.

The analyst could possibly be proper if the technique delivers: decrease charges from anticipated Federal Reserve cuts would possibly spur housing exercise, aiding quicker turns and higher pricing. Opendoor’s $962 million money place offers a runway for restoration, and up to date capital raises — together with $200 million by way of an at-the-market providing –, shore up the steadiness sheet.

Nonetheless, execution stays key — pivots usually result in uneven quarters, and opponents like Redfin supply related providers at decrease prices. If acquisitions do not scale or margins keep skinny, the 2026 goal may slip, exposing the inventory to extra draw back.

Opendoor’s inventory carries heavy quick curiosity above 20%, and insider gross sales add to the skepticism. It suggests the rally would possibly nonetheless rely extra on hype than fundamentals.

The surge may appeal to merchants betting on decrease charges lifting housing, however Opendoor’s funds demand warning. Shares sit nicely under latest peaks, with losses persisting and debt nearing $2 billion. In a market not poised for a fast rebound, chasing additional positive factors feels speculative. The inventory hardly ever strikes on core metrics, and even with interesting valuations, ready for post-earnings readability on traction is sensible over leaping in now.

The Federal Reserve has indicated extra price cuts are coming, however they are not anticipated to be particularly massive. The central financial institution has additionally expressed warning on how for much longer the speed easing will proceed. Whereas any reduce is constructive, the anticipated reductions may not be sufficient to maneuver the needle on rising dwelling gross sales quantity.

Mortgage purposes proceed to fall as affordability stays an enormous hurdle for patrons. Opendoor’s new merchandise could assist, however traders will wish to wait and see proof earlier than shopping for.

Tags: DarlingmemePivotSavestock
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