North Korea is among the most secretive international locations on Earth, with the federal government by no means even publicly confirming Kim Jong Un’s precise delivery date or what number of kids he has. So, for example Kim Jong Un died tomorrow, what would truly occur within the minutes and hours after?
There isn’t any easy reply as a result of North Korea is North Korea, however Kim’s father’s dying, the household’s earlier transfers of energy, and North Korea’s personal nuclear coverage give us a good suggestion of what the primary day may appear to be…
1. First issues first: His dying may keep secret for days
North Korea would nearly definitely not announce Kim Jong Un’s dying instantly. Earlier than saying something publicly, a small group of senior officers would seemingly affirm what had occurred and make sure the authorities and army had been nonetheless functioning.
That’s what occurred when Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, died on Dec. 17, 2011. State tv waited about 51 hours to announce it. And when the information lastly aired, the federal government was already telling the nation to rally round Kim Jong Un because the “nice successor.”
2. There isn’t any vice chairman ready to take over
In america, the vice chairman robotically turns into president if the president dies, however North Korea doesn’t have a publicly identified rule like that. It has additionally by no means formally named or confirmed the one who would change Kim Jong Un.
However that additionally doesn’t imply your entire nation would cease working as army leaders, authorities officers, and the ruling Employees’ Celebration would proceed dealing with their regular obligations whereas a a lot smaller group determined who ought to finally lead. The complicated half is that North Koreans (and presumably the remainder of the world) may not instantly know who was making the large selections.
As of proper now, there is just one large contender who seems almost certainly to exchange him in the long run…
3. The obvious inheritor is his 13-year-old daughter
Kim Jong Un’s daughter is extensively believed to be named Kim Ju Ae and is regarded as round 13 years outdated. The world largely calls her Ju Ae as a result of former NBA star Dennis Rodman stated he met Kim’s child daughter by that title in 2013.
South Korea’s intelligence company says it has credible info that she is being positioned as his successor. And that is precisely why movies of her go viral in America. She actually appears to be like like an harmless younger lady attending occasions along with her dad, till the digital camera pulls again and she or he is surrounded by generals, tanks, and nuclear-capable missiles. 😭
And to make issues weirder, she could not even be his oldest youngster. Kim and his spouse are believed to have three kids, together with an older son who has by no means appeared publicly. No person outdoors Kim’s interior circle is aware of why Ju Ae — the second youngster and a daughter in a closely male-dominated system — is the one being introduced because the household’s future.
And needless to say Kim Jong Un is lots youthful than most of us suppose, as he’s believed to be solely 42. North Korea could not count on to want one other chief anytime quickly, but when he died tomorrow, his most seen potential inheritor could be an adolescent with no publicly confirmed authorities job.
4. Kim’s youthful sister may take over within the meantime
That is the place Kim Jong Un’s grownup youthful sister, Kim Yo Jong, turns into necessary. In contrast to Ju Ae, she already works inside the federal government. She is a senior official within the ruling occasion and commonly delivers statements geared toward South Korea and america. If Ju Ae had been handled because the household’s future, Kim Yo Jong might be one of many adults exercising energy within the meantime.
And sure, Kim Jong Un has an older brother who’s believed to be nonetheless alive. However this household has proven time and time once more that they don’t robotically hand energy to the oldest son. Kim Jong Un himself is reportedly the youngest son, however each of his older brothers had been skipped.
The eldest, Kim Jong Nam, reportedly fell out of favor after Japanese authorities caught him utilizing a false passport in 2001 to go to Tokyo Disneyland. He was later assassinated with the VX nerve agent at a Malaysian airport in 2017.
The opposite brother, Kim Jong Chul, is believed to be alive however has by no means been publicly ready for management. A former household chef claimed their father thought of him too “female” and never forceful sufficient to rule, although that continues to be an unconfirmed secondhand account.
In the intervening time, Kim Yo Jong, the youngest sibling, has spent years constructing a visual political profession. That doesn’t assure that she would develop into the following chief, but it surely makes her a much more believable power-holder than both her teenage niece or politically absent older brother.
5. North Korea may go into lockdown earlier than North Koreans be taught why…
Whereas the management query could be dealt with in non-public, abnormal North Koreans would seemingly start noticing that one thing was unsuitable. Safety may tighten round Pyongyang, army bases, authorities buildings, nuclear services, and the nation’s already closely guarded borders.
Folks may discover canceled occasions, altered tv programming, or a heavier safety presence, however we can not know precisely what measures the federal government would take. As a result of North Korean media is state-controlled, residents may discover that one thing critical was taking place with out being informed that Kim Jong Un had died.
6. So, what would occur to the nuclear weapons?
North Korea’s nuclear weapons wouldn’t instantly be left unattended. The army would maintain guarding them. The true query could be way more scary: Who now had the authority to order their use?
North Korea’s revealed coverage offers Kim Jong Un sole authority over the arsenal. However a 2022 regulation says a nuclear strike ought to occur “robotically and instantly” beneath a plan made upfront if an enemy assault threatens the nation’s management and nuclear command system.
That implies that the reason for Kim’s dying would matter ENORMOUSLY. If he clearly died from an sickness or accident, officers would most likely deal with transferring management. But when North Korea believed one other nation had killed him, commanders may assume an assault was already underway, and emergency authority could have already shifted away from him.
The hazard wouldn’t be a free nuclear bomb. It could be a number of governments making pressing selections with out realizing precisely who was giving orders inside North Korea — or what that particular person believed had simply occurred.
7. South Korea, the US, Japan, and China would react instantly — however for various causes
South Korea, america, and Japan would watch North Korean missile websites, army communications, and artillery positions whereas rising their very own readiness. South Korea and the US are army allies, and Japan is one other shut US ally inside vary of North Korean missiles.
The tough half could be making ready for a potential assault with out by accident making the state of affairs worse. Consultants have warned that North Korea may misinterpret South Korean or US army exercise, which will increase the danger of an unintended confrontation. That hazard could be particularly nice throughout a management disaster, when officers on each aspect is likely to be working with incomplete info.
China could be frightened about one thing barely totally different. It shares a border with North Korea, is one in all its most necessary financial companions, and is sure to it by a mutual protection pact. China would seemingly need to stop preventing, refugees crossing the border, or nuclear supplies changing into unsecured. So, whereas the US and its allies would deal with stopping an assault from North Korea, China would even be making an attempt to cease North Korea itself from falling aside.
8. Then, North Korean tv would lastly announce Kim’s dying
As soon as officers had some sort of momentary plan, state tv may lastly affirm Kim Jong Un’s dying. The announcement would seemingly be extremely emotional whereas additionally insisting that the federal government, the army, and the general public stay united.
When Kim Jong Il died, veteran presenter Ri Chun Hee delivered the information by means of tears, and North Koreans had been instantly informed to rally round Kim Jong Un because the “nice successor.”
A future announcement may not immediately title Kim Jong Un’s everlasting substitute instantly, but it surely may nonetheless present clues. In a rustic the place public appearances are rigorously staged, each small element may assist reveal who had gained energy.
9. Kim Jong Un may die with out the regime falling aside
Kim Jong Un holds excessive energy, however North Korea will not be run by a single particular person. The army, ruling occasion, safety companies, authorities ministries, and officers throughout the nation would nonetheless exist the following morning.
The individuals on the prime would even have a robust cause to maintain the system alive. North Korea makes use of repression and patronage to take care of help from political and army elites, lots of whom may lose their energy, wealth, freedom, or lives if the federal government collapses.
North Korea already survived the deaths of Kim Il Sung in 1994 and Kim Jong Il in 2011. So, the almost certainly instant final result wouldn’t be the nation disappearing or reunifying with South Korea in a single day. It could be the identical dictatorship persevering with whereas a small group determined who would develop into its new public face.
10. And lastly, the funeral may reveal A LOT…
The funeral wouldn’t occur throughout the first 24 hours, however planning would seemingly start instantly. Kim Jong Il’s funeral occurred 11 days after his dying, with Kim Jong Un strolling beside the hearse as monumental crowds mourned in Pyongyang. His place helped present the nation that he was taking on.
Kim Jong Un’s funeral would seemingly be proven on North Korean tv and rebroadcast world wide, however the regime would management each picture. If Ju Ae walked closest to her father’s coffin, she might be introduced because the household’s future. If Kim Yo Jong led the procession, it may present that she held instant energy. And if an unfamiliar common acquired probably the most outstanding place, it may counsel that somebody outdoors the household was truly in management. Small issues just like the order of names on the funeral committee would even be studied for clues.
Now, be trustworthy: Would Kim Jong Un’s dying make you are feeling safer — or would the paradox over North Korea’s new chief and nuclear weapons scare you much more? And who do you suppose would truly take over? Share your ideas within the feedback under!
