Countering Limitless Warfare and its Networks – The Cipher Temporary

The USA shouldn’t be at peace. As I argued in Half I, america is already in a steady, long-term battle with decided adversaries who’re waging warfare with out crossing the edge into open battle. Limitless Warfare is a framework for understanding how these adversaries pursue an everlasting strategy to erode and supplant U.S. energy, affect, and world management over time.

Limitless Warfare shouldn’t be merely one other label for the grey zone or cognitive warfare. Each are vital components and advantage their very own approaches, however Limitless Warfare describes the adversary’s persistent, long-term technique, not simply the weather that allow it.

Given this working setting, that is about excess of terminology. It’s about how we perceive battle, how we obtain deterrence, how we shield choice autonomy, how we retain leverage, and, most significantly, how we disrupt the networks that gasoline Limitless Warfare.

What are the important subsequent steps?

Limitless Warfare Requires a Completely different Strategic Mindset

Militaries are sometimes criticized for planning to combat the final warfare. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was undermined by Russia’s underestimation of how a lot warfare had advanced since Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. The USA doubtlessly faces that very same danger in the present day. It is crucial that we’re ready to combat and win the following standard warfare, however there are dangers in a concentrate on solely that technique. We should additionally put together to combat and win—with the suitable devices of nationwide energy—the Limitless Warfare being waged on america by its adversaries; warfare that comes with grey zone exercise, cognitive warfare, weaponized negotiations, proxies and surrogates, and different subversive networks.

This transformation in strategic mindset shouldn’t be due to an absence of functionality. The USA has appreciable expertise, assets, and capabilities on this area. Limitless Warfare is conceptually completely different from standard warfare—significantly given the ambiguous nature of gray-zone exercise and cognitive warfare—and due to this fact calls for a unique strategy.

But as a result of it’s a steady state of battle, it additionally requires the identical stage of nationwide management and imaginative and prescient, group, crucial pondering, sense of urgency, and collaboration with allies that we apply to traditional battle. That is achievable however will take some effort. It could require a senior White Home official, reminiscent of a Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor for Strategic Competitors, to combine interagency motion and coordinate a sustained nationwide response to this risk.

That Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor wouldn’t substitute present duties of Departments and Businesses. The position can be to make sure that strategic deterrence within the grey zone, cognitive benefit, battle negotiations when adversaries search to increase relatively than resolve battle, and community disruptions are built-in right into a coherent and sustained nationwide response to the specter of Limitless Warfare towards america.

Strategic Deterrence within the Grey Zone

Strategic deterrence is one part of a broader strategy to countering Limitless Warfare. Grey zone exercise is a robust enabler of Limitless Warfare as a result of it provides our adversaries an area to undermine america whereas avoiding armed battle.

Our adversaries have calculated that there are extra good points than dangers within the grey zone and that any dangers they do face are acceptable. Actions that search to counter or defend towards grey zone exercise however that don’t impose significant prices or create credible deterrence might merely reward grey zone exercise.

An efficient technique for reaching strategic deterrence within the grey zone rests on deliberate preparation, clear communication, a nationwide strategy, and the resolve to alter the danger calculus of our adversaries.

Deliberate preparation means gathering and analyzing data on adversary grey zone traits, capabilities, and intent earlier than they act; routinely coordinating on the nationwide stage so roles, duties, and choice paths are clear; and reorienting establishments and the interagency to keep up efficient balanced functionality in each standard and grey domains.

We additionally should talk clearly domestically, to our allies, and significantly to our adversaries. A easy however clear message for our adversaries: “We are going to see what you’re doing, we are going to publicly attribute it to you, and we are going to impose prices that exceed your good points.”

This message is credible solely whether it is backed by motion over time. The USA should convincingly show its resolve to proactively and persistently make use of nationwide capabilities to alter the danger calculus and habits of our adversaries.

This vary of nationwide capabilities consists of coordinated diplomatic and allied motion, financial sanctions and restrictions, cyber operations, authorized and monetary disruption, public attribution, denying entry to crucial applied sciences, cognitive measures, navy posture and associate capability-building and—when crucial—kinetic responses. Latest examples illustrate that imposing prices is feasible.

In 2021, america publicly attributed the SolarWinds supply-chain compromise to Russia, expelled Russian Intelligence Officers, and imposed broad monetary penalties below the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act.

In early 2025, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned Sichuan Juxinhe Community Know-how Firm and related people for his or her position in Salt Hurricane for assaults on community infrastructure of a number of main U.S. telecommunication and web service suppliers.

These had been hard-earned wins for U.S. Departments and Businesses concerned, however Russia and China seem to have absorbed the prices and continued their operations. Attaining strategic deterrence signifies that actions like these should grow to be the norm, not the exception.

The aim of strategic deterrence within the grey zone is to form adversary decision-making earlier than motion is taken. It means proactively shaping the setting so adversaries hesitate earlier than they act—a crucial step in disrupting the cycle of Limitless Warfare.

Gaining a Cognitive Benefit

Countering the impacts of cognitive warfare is important to countering Limitless Warfare. My colleague, Austin Department, and I argued in The Cipher Temporary that it was potential—and crucial—for the U.S. to grab a Twenty first-century cognitive benefit.

That argument is much more pressing in the present day given the central position of cognitive warfare in our adversaries’ methods of Limitless Warfare. Cognitive Safety, at its core, is the safety of human cognition and choice autonomy—our particular person and collective capability to precisely understand world occasions, to belief the information we have now and the knowledge we obtain, and to make assured, unbiased selections free from exterior manipulation, affect, or coercion.

Cognitive Safety can be about offense—outthinking, outpacing, and outmaneuvering our adversaries within the cognitive area.

Our adversaries ought to perceive that their leaders, establishments, networks, proxies—and decision-making—are susceptible to cognitive stress and affect. The aim is to power them—not america—to confront the uncertainties and dangers of cognitive warfare and to weaken their capability to wage Limitless Warfare.

There are some constructive steps on the nationwide stage.

We now have a first-ever NSC Cognitive Benefit Director, and the FY26 NDAA directs the Secretary of Protection to formally outline cognitive warfare for the Division. The Division’s Strategic Capabilities Workplace lately launched a Cognitive Warfare Challenge to advance the navy’s cognitive warfare capabilities. There may be clearly alternative right here.

But, these early steps stay fragmented. In distinction, China’s United Entrance Work Division, Russia’s Lively Measures networks, and Iran’s numerous community of surrogates mirror centralized nationwide route and a long-term horizon as components of a nationwide technique.

On this very important course of, America’s strategy must be equally well-coordinated and strategic. It’s important that these new efforts keep away from bureaucratic hurdles, over-prescription that will stifle innovation, and creating silos. Our adversaries is not going to look forward to us to catch up.

Our nationwide narrative—America’s Story—additionally performs an vital position. As Department and I argued within the Cipher Temporary, our nationwide narrative is each sword and defend. It tasks energy, affect, and advances our pursuits. It tells the story of our values, historical past, aspirations, and think about of the world. It helps confidence in our actions, our establishments, and our world commitments.

Importantly, America’s Story counters adversary narratives and actions that search to undermine America at residence and overseas. It will probably function a robust antidote to adversary campaigns that use cognitive warfare to maintain extended battle. America’s Story was constructed at a time when a lot of the world noticed America as liberator, peacemaker, builder, world diplomat, and above all, a robust image of sacrifice, freedom, and self-determination. The lengthy arc of America’s Story is its energy.

The USA can’t let this nationwide narrative get misplaced in episodic political turbulence—its position in countering our adversaries is simply too very important.

Countering Weaponized Negotiations

Within the period of Limitless Warfare, adversaries typically use negotiations as a continuation of battle by different means—not as devices of decision. Negotiations can play an outsized position in Limitless Warfare regardless that they solely happen periodically. The central problem is distinguishing when talks intention to legitimately resolve a battle versus when they’re designed to form its subsequent section.

In the present day, drawing classes instantly from Russia’s habits—from Georgia to Ukraine—and from Iran, a number of ideas emerge that may strengthen our negotiating posture when dealing with adversaries that apply weaponized negotiations.

These key ideas embody:

No upfront concessions. Make no upfront concessions to get an adversary to the negotiating desk. Such actions erode diplomatic, financial, and navy leverage and may form your entire negotiations on unfavorable phrases.

Set up clear overarching aims and non-negotiable redlines early. This preserves choice autonomy, supplies a framework for decision-making, and prevents adversaries from reshaping aims to their benefit.

Proactively counter narratives. Throughout negotiations over Ukraine, Russia repeatedly pushed narratives, reminiscent of “Ukraine can by no means win” and “territory concessions are inevitable,” to form Western perceptions of what constituted a sensible consequence. Anticipating and countering false narratives ensures negotiations usually are not manipulated.

Concessions have to be conditions-based. Any concessions given throughout negotiations have to be based mostly on measurable, verifiable actions with automated snap-back mechanisms if commitments are violated.

Be keen to stroll away. The need for any settlement ought to by no means outweigh core nationwide safety pursuits. Suspending or ending talks is best than enabling or accepting a settlement that resets the battle in an adversary’s favor.

Chester Karrass put it plainly, in life you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate. This can be a highly effective counter to American assumptions that uncooked energy or battlefield success will carry the day on the negotiating desk.

Countering Limitless Warfare Networks

These measures—deterrence, cognitive benefit, and managing weaponized negotiations—significantly enhance America’s posture, however they don’t by themselves disrupt Limitless Warfare networks.

The final word aim is systematically confronting the adversary networks that pose an everlasting risk to the U.S. These networks fall into two broad classes: state institutional constructions and extra ambiguous constructions that blur the road between state and non-state exercise.

Institutional networks embody navy organizations, intelligence companies, social gathering organizations, proxy constructions, and state-directed organizations reminiscent of IRGC-QF, MSS, GRU, and FSB, in addition to the specialised models answerable for assassinations and sabotage, affect operations, and cyber-attacks as a couple of examples.

Ambiguous networks embody ghost fleets, shell and entrance firms, prison organizations, illicit monetary methods, logistics methods affect networks, cyber hacktivists, proxy militias, smuggling organizations, and different comparable entities.

These networks usually are not summary. Iran, Russia, and China make use of completely different approaches to Limitless Warfare, however every illustrates how adversaries develop and make use of each institutional and ambiguous networks to attain persistent strategic aims over an extended timeframe. Simply as a couple of examples:

Iran’s community of proxies and surrogates, constructed over many years, permits Iran to challenge energy, coerce and intimidate its neighbors, and get inside the choice area of its adversaries at comparatively low price. The IRGC is an enabler of Iran’s distributed networks with world attain.

Russia’s networks conduct cognitive warfare towards the U.S. and the West and conduct sabotage, assassinations, and political coercion throughout Europe. Russia’s “ghost fleets” have allowed it to generate billions in income regardless of Western sanctions.

China’s Cyber networks probe and penetrate U.S. crucial infrastructure to maintain entry, accumulate data, and supply a disruption functionality throughout a disaster. Its networks allow subtle affect operations contained in the U.S. and the switch of crucial applied sciences that instantly improve its navy capabilities.

Shared and overlapping networks in grey and ambiguous areas play a crucial position. Ghost fleets, entrance firms, terror networks, illicit monetary organizations, and prison enterprises enable adversaries to bypass sanctions, maintain operations, and cut back worldwide stress.

A few of these networks are seen and attributable, others are deliberately obscured and decentralized to complicate attribution and defy sovereignty, worldwide regulation, and nationwide legal guidelines, together with these of the U.S. We must always anticipate our adversaries to fiercely shield these resilient, adaptive, and self-recovering networks they’ve fastidiously developed over time, typically over many years, to achieve and maintain a strategic benefit.

The crucial query is how the U.S. can systematically cut back the effectiveness of those networks.

To paraphrase H.L. Mencken, for each advanced downside there’s a solution that’s clear, easy, and improper. That’s the dilemma dealing with the U.S. now. Overly simplistic approaches or single options that don’t take into consideration the complexities of Limitless Warfare and the dedication of our adversaries to that strategy will devour time and assets however finally fail.

Countering Limitless Warfare requires a sustained, network-centric technique using the devices of nationwide energy—diplomatic, navy, financial, technological, informational, cognitive, and kinetic—relatively than a collection of unbiased actions. This technique consists of three mutually reinforcing traces of effort constructed on one foundational precept.

First, establish and prioritize the networks that pose the best long-term risk to america. There aren’t any official estimates of this ecosystem of networks—and what constitutes a community has not been clearly outlined—however Iran, Russia, and China, collectively direct or allow a really giant quantity institutional, industrial, prison, cyber, intelligence, affect, and proxy networks worldwide.

Second, maintain campaigns to sunlight, degrade, disrupt, and impose prices on institutional networks that conduct and oversee assaults on america and our allies. It’s unlikely that the U.S. can dismantle international institutional networks, however these networks might be degraded, constrained, and made pricey and fewer efficient.

Third, dismantle, disrupt, and forestall the regeneration of ambiguous networks by severing the monetary, logistical, technological, and organizational methods that help them. This isn’t a one-time exercise. Ambiguous networks are extra susceptible, however they’re typically adaptive and may regenerate or get replaced.

Cognitive Safety and Cyber Defenses have a mixed very important position to play. None of those efforts will succeed except Americans, enterprise leaders, navy commanders, and coverage makers are much less susceptible to affect, manipulation, and coercion—preserving America’s choice autonomy—and except governments, establishments, organizations, and important infrastructure are much less susceptible to technological exploitation and disruption.

Abstract

The ideas on this paper are tough to neatly categorize as a result of they describe a type of warfare that’s not totally outlined. As standard warfare evolves, so do the extra nuanced elements of warfare that happen beneath and above the edge of battle and within the ambiguous area between peace and warfare. I supply 4 takeaways.

First, Limitless Warfare is a definite adversary technique already underway by China, Russia, and Iran and needs to be handled as a present strategic risk—not only a future one.

Second, limitless Warfare is sustained by subtle and interconnected networks that should grow to be a major goal for U.S. and allied efforts.

Third, countering Limitless Warfare requires a proactive, persistent, and network-centric strategy backed by national-level management, a brand new framework for strategic planning, a way of urgency, and coordinated interagency motion. Is ittime to think about a senior White Home official, reminiscent of a Deputy Nationwide Safety Advisor for Strategic Competitors, to combine interagency motion and coordinate a sustained nationwide response to this risk?

Fourth, strategic deterrence within the grey zone, cognitive benefit, disciplined negotiations, and network-focused disruption are core instruments of that sustained nationwide response to make Limitless Warfare more and more ineffective, pricey, and finally unsustainable for China, Russia, and Iran.

Limitless Warfare is not going to finish as a result of our adversaries select peace. It is going to finish when it’s now not efficient.

All statements of truth, opinion, or evaluation expressed are these of the writer and don’t mirror the official positions or views of the U.S. Authorities. Nothing within the contents needs to be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Authorities authentication of data or endorsement of the writer’s views.

The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals. Opinions expressed are these of the writer and don’t signify the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.