India’s top telecom operators—Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea (Vi)—are expected to announce another round of tariff hikes by November–December 2025, as part of a broader “tariff repair” strategy aimed at boosting revenue and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), global brokerage Bernstein said in a recent note.
The brokerage projects ARPU levels to rise to Rs 300 by FY27, driven by continued tariff increases, smartphone upgrades, and data monetisation, the Economic Times reported. The latest hike — implemented in July 2024 — raised headline rates by 20–25%, and its full impact is still playing out in operator earnings.
Rahul Mathur, Pre-Seed Investor at DeVC_India, in a post on X, noted over the past five years, the cost of mobile data in India has steadily climbed, and telco financials make that trend crystal clear. The key indicator? ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)—a metric that shows how much a telecom company earns per customer—has surged significantly across the board.
For example, Jio’s ARPU has nearly doubled, rising between 50% to 96% since 2019. This means a typical Jio user today is paying close to twice as much for mobile services as they did five years ago. While this jump comes with improvements in service quality, speed, and coverage, it also marks a shift from the era of ultra-cheap data that once drove India’s digital boom.
All major players — Jio, Airtel, and Vi — have seen ARPU growth driven by tariff hikes, premium plan adoption, and increased data consumption. As networks roll out 5G and push toward profitability, this upward trend is likely to continue.
“Data in India is cheap. But it is slowing getting more expensive – Telco financials share this exact story: Approx. 50% to 96% in ARPU over the past 5 years i.e. for a typical Jio customer, they are paying almost x2 what they did 5 years ago (of course, better service etc),” Mathur said.
Q3 ARPU
During the third quarter of FY25, Reliance Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) surpassed the Rs 200 mark, reaching Rs 203.3. This marks significant growth for the telecom operator, especially considering that the ARPU was hovering around Rs 180 before the tariff hikes were implemented.
Bharti Airtel achieved an impressive ARPU of Rs 245 during Q3 FY25, making it the highest among all telcos in the Indian telecom industry by a substantial margin. Comparatively, Airtel’s ARPU was Rs 208 in the same quarter last year.
Vodafone Idea reported an ARPU of Rs 173 in Q3 FY25, up from Rs 166 in the previous quarter. The company has shown steady growth in ARPU since the tariff adjustments.
Bernstein forecasts
Bernstein forecasts mid-to-high teen revenue growth for Airtel and Jio from 2025–2027, with subscriber additions and ARPU growth as key drivers. Airtel is also expected to improve its financials significantly, with free cash flow rising and net debt-to-EBITDA dropping to ~0.9x by FY27. Its ROCE could reach ~18%.
Meanwhile, Vi received relief after the government agreed to convert ₹36,950 crore of its spectrum dues into equity, raising its stake to 49%. This move, analysts say, highlights the government’s commitment to maintaining a three-player market, which bodes well for price discipline and future tariff stability.
Bernstein concludes that Airtel is best positioned in the telecom sector with strong balance sheet fundamentals, rising ARPU, and improving capital efficiency—outperforming both the Nifty and Asian peers in 2024 so far.
