The real footy arrives with Round 1, when all eighteen teams compete with each needing to start the season well.
The rivalry matches take place on Thursday and Friday night with Richmond and Carlton playing, as well as Hawthorn and Essendon, both at a bumping MCG.
Let’s take a deep dive into each game and decide what your team needs to do to win.
Richmond vs Carlton
Two old foes do battle in the traditional season opener, but both with very different expectations heading into 2025. The pass mark for the Blues is a grand final, whilst the Tigers just want to see some improvement from their young crop this season.
Tom Lynch, who is arguably their most important player returns for the Tigers.
If the Richmond forwards and midfielders can find a way to put enough pressure on the Carlton midfielders up the ground, it will mean rushed and hurried kicks or slow ball movement, which will allow some of the Tigers intercept defenders in Nick Vlastuin (third in intercepts per game last season across the league) and Nathan Broad to be able to create scoring opportunities off the back of that.
PREDICTION: This one could get ugly very quickly. Carlton by over ten goals.
Hawthorn vs Essendon
These two teams absolutely hate each other, and it always makes for good football. Hawthorn started their season on Friday night when staving off a fast-finishing Sydney outfit, whilst the Bombers kick off their season with a growing sense of optimism after some good pre-season displays.
Both teams will be hoping to be able to thwart the opposition forward line. Essendon have no problem getting the ball inside 50 but just didn’t take advantage from it and I see that not changing a whole lot considering Peter Wright is injured and Jake Stringer is no longer at the club. Tom Barrass, James Sicily, and Josh Battle will be key.
If Andrew McGrath can curb the influence of Dylan Moore and Jaxon Prior can stop Nick Watson like Sam Wicks did last week, the Bombers are right in the game. It is a big If though.
PREDICTION: I think it will be close all night, but the Hawks will be able to pull away slightly late. They should be able to win the midfield battle and have more potency up forward.
Geelong vs Fremantle
Fremantle trek down to the ‘Cattery’ for the opening game of both clubs’ seasons.
I think it is hard to split these two teams. Fremantle can gain ascendancy arounds the stoppage clearances against a Geelong team who needs a midfielder to announce himself this season. Patrick Dangerfield is another year older and Tanner Bruhn who was their second best inside midfielder last year can’t be expected to carry the load.
The area Geelong can get Fremantle in is by applying pressure up the field which will then allow the Cats defenders to get set and do what they do best by intercepting and turning defense into offence. They ranked second in this area last season and have three of the best intercept defenders in the competition in Tom Stewart, Zach Guthrie, and Jack Henry.
PREDICTION: Fremantle have beaten Geelong in their last two games at GMHBA and I think they will repeat the dose here. I expect them to be able to gain ascendancy in the contest and with improvement expected from Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss, to be able to kick a winning score. Fremantle in a close one.
Sydney vs Brisbane
The grand final rematch takes place on a Saturday twilight time slot with Sydney being desperate to be able to avenge that loss and get their season back on track.
Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, Levi Ashcroft, and Josh Dunkley are a scary proposition for any team and for Sydney, missing Errol Gulden and Callum Mills, they will need the likes of Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner to dominate.
Sydney also need to try and put pressure on the lions defenders and stop them running away with the ball with ease and launching counter attacks. They ranked fifteenth in this area in 2024 and it was a major part of their undoing in the Grand Final. If they can apply pressure in their own 50 it may make the lions feel the pain of losing Joe Daniher even more.
PREDICTION: I think Brisbane are the better team, but Sydney will be more conditioned after last week. I am tipping Brisbane by under two goals in what should be a cracking game.
Kai Lohmann celebrates one of his three first half grand final goals. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
The Bulldogs and Kangaroos kick off their season with completely differing expectations considering North just want steady improvement and Bulldogs fans a deep September run.
Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Liam Jones, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Cody Weightman miss for the Dogs in what are devastating outs.
The midfield battle is fascinating considering the outs for the Dogs. Tom Liberatore, Ed Richards, and Ryley Sanders will likely be the starting rotation for the Dogs but the North Melbourne midfield including Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, George Wardlaw, Harry Sheezel and Finn O’Sullivan is talented and probably bats deeper in this game.
The equation is rather simple for North Melbourne: win the midfield battle and with Liam Jones out, have a chance of kicking a winning score with the likes of Nick Larkey, Cameron Zurhaar, and Luke Parker hitting the scoreboard. Lose this area and allow one of the more potent forward lines in the competition easy ball against arguably the worst back six in the competition.
PREDICTION: I am predicting a tight contest for most of the night. It is hard to tip against the Bulldogs though considering the fire power they possess and the weakness that is the North Melbourne defence. Bulldogs by around three goals.
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide
The pressure is already on the Magpies after a horror start to the season, losing to GWS.
What to make of this contest? Collingwood looked really, really slow against the Giants (who aren’t noticeably fast) and Nick Daicos is battling with cramp and soreness which exasperates this issue.
A midfield of Daicos, Pendlebury, Crisp, Mitchell, and Sidebottom reads terribly. The question is, without Zak Butters, can Port Adelaide take advantage of it? Ollie Wines and Travis Boak do nothing for pace and the likes of Willem Drew aren’t quick either.
Jason Horne-Francis could be the difference maker for the Power, and they will need him at his absolute best to be able to win this game with his power and breakaway speed.
For Collingwood the plan is simple. Play their way and stick to their plan as we know it works. They aren’t a high disposal team, and they aren’t even a skilful one at times but they get the ball inside 50 quickly and their smalls can apply pressure.
PREDICTION: Anyone’s game really. I am leaning towards the Magpies at home. They still had 22 scoring shots last week and the Giants are better than Port Adelaide. Collingwood by around three goals on a hot and humid night at the MCG.
Dan Houston. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Adelaide vs St Kilda
Both the Crows’ and Saints’ supporter bases enter 2025 with optimism but also cautious pessimism as the two have struggled for form in recent seasons.
St Kilda need to win the hard ball and win the contest because they have a slow midfield, and if they get beaten in the contest the spread of the Cros will see them get exploited for all their weaknesses.
If they manage to win the contested ball, it will allow for repeat inside 50s against a very average Adelaide defensive unit. If they can put pressure on the Adelaide back six, they will be able to kick a winning score.
PREDICTION: The Saints have too many outs and even without them I would lean towards the Crows. The Crows should be too fast and too potent. Adelaide by five goals.
Melbourne vs GWS
The first test for the Demons comes in the season opener against a red-hot Giants team who mauled the Magpies last week.
Both defenses will give themselves a good chance of shutting down their opposing forward lines and resting midfielders. The Giants are without Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer again for this game, which sees Aaron Cadman and Callum Brown play against Steven May and Jake Lever.
At the opposing end, Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley might be the best defenders in the competition and they face an undersized Melbourne attack led by Jacob van Rooyen. Daniel Turner and Bayley Fritsch. They will have to rise to the occasion, or else it is hard to see Melbourne kicking a winning score.
PREDICTION: I think this will be closer than most people expect. The margin flattered the Giants to a degree last week and they are away from home. I am tipping the Giants by a goal or two but with no confidence.
West Coast vs Gold Coast
This was the hardest game to analyse all round for mine. West Coast just couldn’t get their hands on the footy in 2024 and I think new coach Andrew McQualter will bring a similar game plan that the Richmond dynasty had.
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When you look at the midfield battle you would suggest the likes of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Touk Miller should be winning a lot of contested ball, but the reality is that they don’t and they ranked thirteenth in clearances per game in 2024.
Gold Coast can capitalize on the Eagles lack of defensive pressure in their own forward 50. Daniel Rioli and John Noble were brought in to run and carry and turn defense into offence. It must be said that West Coast ranked sixteenth in tackles inside 50 last season, and I don’t think Matt Owies will change this very much.
The Eagles forwards need to make sure they are being diligent when they don’t have the footy.
PREDICTION: I am siding with the Eagles here. The Suns are missing a couple of key players in Sam Flanders and Mac Andrew, and I think West Coast will improve with the new additions in 2025. West Coast by two or three goals in a close one to wrap up Round 1.
